What To Buy Before Tariffs Raise The Price Of Everything - Forbes

Since the second Trump administration announced sweeping global tariffs on April 2, , we have seen prices rise and the stock market fall. Then we saw tariff delays leading to stock market surges, even as a massive tariff was placed on Chinese imports. This was followed by framework trade deal agreements with assorted nations, dramatically lowered tariffs on China due to the beginning of bilateral trade talks between the U.S. and China, and a shipping container’s worth of general uncertainty and unease.

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Despite this, what is clear, according to numerous experts we consulted, is that the prices Americans will soon be paying on all sorts of products—from sofas to washing machines—are going to rise if they have not already, even if not so much as initially feared. That’s because tariffs, often positioned as taxes levied on foreign countries and companies, are, in fact, paid by American businesses importing goods, with some level of elevated consumer prices following on.

To better understand what the effects of these policies will be and how our readers’ lives may change, we spoke with multiple economists and finance experts to find out what developments we can expect to see across the many products we test and recommend at Forbes Vetted. These experts also shared their advice on how to think about consumer purchasing in the short term, and gave guidance on how to navigate this tricky and uncertain time.

What Tariffs Are Currently In Place, And On What Items?

Tariffs generally fall into two categories: Baseline and reciprocal. Each has a different strategic purpose for the levier, and impact on those levied. “A baseline tariff is a tariff rate set by our government on all countries,” says Professor Albert Williams, Ph.D, Finance Chair of the Wayne Huizenga College of Business at Nova Southeastern University. On the other hand, he explains that a reciprocal tariff is a further elevated duty imposed as either a retaliation or a punitive measure implemented based on perceived unfair trade practices.

Currently, there is a 10% baseline tariff on everything imported to the United States, with higher tariffs imposed on various industries based abroad. Many of these tariffs are nearly as high as 50%, per data sourced from the government, though tentative deals with select nations (such as the United Kingdom) may soon bring those down for some global partners. Few elevated reciprocal tariffs are currently in place, though, as the White House granted a 90-day freeze on April 9, temporarily keeping things at that baseline 10%.

As for what goods are affected, Professor Jason Miller, Ph.D, with Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business, says: “There are tariffs on [almost everything] except for carveouts for [products like] lumber and wood products and copper,” Miller says. “A great many products are affected,” he adds.

What won’t be affected, at least for now, is a selection of tech products. Shortly after imposing wide-ranging blanket tariffs on China, the Trump administration announced exemptions on smartphones, computers, computer chips and several other high-tech product categories, making them subject to much lower duties than the rest of China’s imports. This is seen as a direct but short-term assist to American tech giants, chiefly Apple. But it might be a short-term gift, as the White House has said tariffs on these items are “coming soon.”

How Do Tariffs Impact Consumer Products And Pricing?

To understand the impact of tariffs on consumer goods, it’s important to first define the broader context of trade in the United States. “The U.S. trades a lot and imports a lot,” says Sarada, Ph.D. and adjunct assistant professor of strategy at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management. "Imports include raw building materials, electronics such as computers and phones, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, machinery and equipment, cars and car parts, clothing, footwear, fruit, tree nuts, coffee and so much more."

Professor Babak Hafezi, who teaches International Business at American University, adds that because of this reliance on imports, plus the ways the tariffs have been imposed, he expects that "nearly everything will increase in price.” He goes on: “We have to understand that we have a globalized supply chain with parts being made all over the world and [products] assembled in other countries.”

While the exemption of many high-tech devices might keep the price of iPhones, laptops, and other hardware stabler than previously expected—at least for now—you can expect higher price tags for things like appliances, TVs and other complex manufactured goods. Imported foods, apparel, luxury items and more will become pricier, including everything from French wine to Italian leather. And coffee and chocolate will no doubt be more expensive, too.

Ironically, tariffs levied on foreign goods often prompt an increase on domestically produced goods as well. If a retailer raises the price on a pound of French cheese by five dollars, for example, they may well elevate the cost of a comparable American product by two or three dollars, since it will still seem like the better bargain. The same is true for other domestically produced products, from apparel to technology to toys.

And in addition to higher prices for the consumer, tariffs may lead to supply chain disruptions for both internationally and domestically produced products. This is, in part, because China has vastly limited its exports to the United States in response to the reciprocal tariffs placed on its manufacturers. As an example, our recommendation for one of the best couches, the Rose Sofa from Chicago-based custom sofa maker Interior Define is temporarily unavailable due to trade fluctuations borne by the tariffs. We may see more brands and items follow suit as raw materials become prohibitively expensive or altogether unavailable.

What Specific Retailers May Be Affected?

As the tariff landscape continues to fluctuate, so too will the retailers affected by this change, as will the timing of the impact on the larger consumer marketplace. For example, China was briefly levied with a formidable 145% tariff rate, which saw countless shipping containers full of thousands of dollars worth of goods simply stop their forward progress toward the American consumer.

Lower-value shipments, such as those from Shein and Temu, also seemed poised to slow dramatically. That’s because the large volume of direct-to-consumer shipments from companies like these, worth less than $800, have, until now, been exempt from tariff fees. This was because of a rule known as the “de minimis exemption.” According to an official White House press release: “On average, CBP [Customs and Border Protection] processes over 4 million de minimis shipments into the U.S. each day.”

As of May 2, , that exemption is no more, and even these smaller shipments were expected to be assessed with import fees. Along with that initial 145% tariff, it looked like shipments could cost the consumer more than double the expense expected at the time of the order. Now, with American tariffs on Chinese imports lowered to 30% for at least most of the summer, prices may stay more manageable than expected, these low-cost retailers are likely to retain a decent share of the American market.

All that said, reduced tariffs on China and framework trade deals with trading partners around the globe are likely not enough to head off price increases in the short term and the lingering chance of recession. As an example, Walmart, still the world’s largest retailer, is planning to raise prices soon. While many products Walmart sells are produced domestically in the United States—including much of the food and grocery items the retail giant offers—its assortment of toys, electronics and other major sellers for the company are overwhelmingly made in China. Even the temporary 30% increase on tariffs will impact the prices Americans pay.

When Will Prices Increase, And What Should I Buy Before Then?

While we saw some price increases in anticipation of the tariffs and some shortly after they hit, the majority of the price jumps will take place months after they fully go into effect, “once existing inventories are cycled through and the tariffed items are now being sold,” says professor Miller. That means that with the White House’s current delays, we should see an impact by the early summer.

And as for whether to stock up before that time, professor Miller advises proceeding with some nuance: “Given all the uncertainty about what tariffs will actually be, I would tell folks only to go forward on purchases for something like a smartphone if they were planning on replacing that anyway in the next few months. The same applies with items like laptops.”

Long story short, if you were about to buy something you need, go ahead and make the purchase, especially for already pricey items that may be subject to additional price hikes soon. Also shop for those intentional items when you see a meaningful discount; while it’s still too early to tell how shopping events later in the year, like Amazon Prime Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday will ultimately be affected, it’s smart to pick up what you truly need if you can get it for a good deal. (We’ll continue to track these savings in our ongoing sale coverage.) That said, if you’re not actively in the market for a given product, don’t panic buy early—even if it’s currently discounted.

While we’re still waiting to see how drastic and widespread price increases may be in coming months, here are some of the items we’re keeping an eye on, and that you may want to consider purchasing now if they need to be replaced:

Smartphones, Laptops And Other Tech

The back-and-forth over whether smartphones, computers and other technology will be impacted by tariffs means nothing is certain; if you are in the market for a new device, such as the iPhone 15 Pro Max or a new Android , you may want to buy it. The same goes for laptops, printers and other electronics like our top-recommended TVs.

Furniture And Home Goods

According to the Alliance for American Manufacturing, about 75% of all furniture sold in America is produced overseas. If you’re in the market for a new desk, bedroom set or living room seating, such as one of the best sofas Forbes Vetted team spent more than a year testing, this is a good time to go for it.

Shoes, Apparel And Other Textiles

The vast majority of shoes, such as Forbes Vetted reader-favorite Hoka walking shoes, are made overseas, and the price on shoes of all types is likely to rise when tariffs hit and new designs come out. This is also the case for things like men’s shorts, crossbody bags, bath towels and other clothing, accessories and textiles we test and recommend.

Home Appliances

We regularly cover home appliances, such as whole-house humidifiers, stackable washers and dryers, and other hardware that can be quite expensive even without tariff-induced price hikes. If you have already budgeted for a home appliance, it could be a good idea to buy now before prices rise further.

Food, Beverage And Flowers

You can all but count on higher prices on numerous foods and beverages, such as the aforementioned chocolate, coffee and wine subscriptions, but also on other imports like olive oil and flowers.

Who Pays For Tariffs?

Contrary to common misconception, tariffs are not paid by foreign countries or foreign companies; they are paid by the company importing goods from overseas or by an agent for the domestic company. In other words, in the case of these recent tariffs, they will be paid for by American businesses.

The money raised goes through the United States Custom and Border Protection agency and becomes federal government revenue. “Tariff taxes collected are added to the government’s revenues, which are then used for education, social programs, military, healthcare spending and more,” says professor Williams.

Some of the costs incurred by those importers are absorbed by the companies affected, but the rest are largely passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. In effect, everyday consumers eventually shoulder some burden of increased prices triggered by tariffs.

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How Might Tariffs Affect The Greater Economy?

Given how interconnected the American economy is to the global world beyond, the impact of tariffs will undoubtedly be felt across industries and continents, from financial markets to factories and beyond.

From a purely domestic perspective, Sarada explains it like this: “Tariffs, the production of goods and services, prices, portfolio values, employment and salaries are all intertwined. Once there is volatility or uncertainty [due to] tariffs, then we can expect uncertainties across these different aspects of the economy. When there is uncertainty, a small fraction of economic agents, like some types of traders and fund managers, wealthy individuals and some entrepreneurs can seize the opportunity to shift resources quickly into markets that are dropping and then cash out when they rise.”

Further, some economists warn that the current tariff program may lead to a recession. A “recession” is defined as two or more consecutive quarters of decline in economic activity significant enough that the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrinks. The types of economic activity tracked include a higher unemployment rate, a slowdown in industrial production, reduced consumer spending and reduced business investment and profit.

“This is what most economists are worried about,” says professor Hafezi. “If we have rising prices because of tariffs and enter a recession, we could enter a timeframe of stagflation. This is a staggering economy that cannot rebalance because tariffs impose an artificially high rate on prices, and discounting will be minimal because the supply chain will have taken all discounts possible to keep prices down as much as possible. This staggering economy is happening while you have further inflationary elements that dampen economic activity. Furthermore, companies will take multiple quarters to move their supply chains to rebalance production to countries that are not tariffed or are less so. This will take time.”

Sarada adds: “Most people respond to uncertainty in the economy by pulling back." And as for how soon this might occur, exactly “when people will start pulling back depends on what they experience—whether they start losing jobs, see portfolios fall in value for a sustained period or stop receiving wage increases or bonuses.”

While President Donald Trump was levying massive tariffs on goods from around the world this week, he also moved to pinch off a popular trade loophole that allows American shoppers to buy low-cost goods directly from retailers in China and Hong Kong.

Popular e-commerce companies, including giants Shein and Temu, use the so-called "de minimis" exemption to ship tens of millions of packages — everything from end tables and lamps to shoes and underwear — to U.S. consumers every year.

So long as each individual package is worth $800 or less, they aren't required to pay import fees or go through typical customs inspections. But under an executive order signed by Trump Wednesday, that loophole will close on May 2.

These lower-value shipments will now face a tariff of 30% of the "value of the postal item containing goods for merchandise" with a minimum fee that will eventually rise to $50.

"We are really pleased," said Kimberly Glas, president of the National Council of Textile Organizations, a trade group that lobbied for the de minimis shipments to end, in part to protect U.S.-based manufacturers. "We think this was a huge step forward."

Critics of the de minimis exemption say it offered foreign firms backdoor access to American consumers. Over the last decade, international retailers have exploited the rule aggressively, growing the number of direct-sale deliveries to U.S. consumers roughly ten-fold from through last year.

But some trade experts say closing the loophole and adding what amounts to a hefty tax to low-cost goods will come at a steep cost for many shoppers.

A study published last year by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-partisan think tank based in Massachusetts, concluded Americans will wind up paying $10.9 billion to $13 billion more for purchases each year.

In an to NPR, one of the paper's co-authors, Amit Khandelwal, predicted higher prices would fall most heavily on people with lower incomes who have used e-commerce purchases to lower expenses.

"We find that lower-income consumers take advantage of de minimis shipments disproportionally more than richer consumers," said Khandelwal, a professor of global affairs and economics at Yale University.

Fears of fentanyl and unfair competition

But while many of Trump's tariffs are controversial, efforts to close the de minimis loophole have drawn bipartisan support, with the backing of U.S. public safety, consumer protection and trade groups.

Last year, 126 House Democrats sent a letter to then-President Joe Biden urging him to use an executive order to apply inspections and duty fees to all direct shipments.

"We had 1.4 billion de minimis shipments last year," Glas said. "These [imported] items don't pay a tariff. There's no scrutiny. Which essentially equates to four million boxes coming in a day, with little information and no one to hold accountable."

Industry groups in the U.S. believe the direct, duty-free shipments have meant unfair competition for American factories and textile plants that make garments.

Some activists and U.S. government officials also believe the roughly 4 million packages now entering the country daily have become a significant source of smuggled street fentanyl and other contraband.

"Bad actors are exploiting this explosion in volume to traffic counterfeits [knock-off products that resemble name brand], dangerous narcotics, and other illicit goods including precursor chemicals and materials such as pill presses and die molds used to manufacture fentanyl and other synthetic drugs that are killing Americans," said U.S. Customs and Border Patrol officials in an October report.

The executive order signed by Trump this week cites fentanyl as a major factor in his decision to close the trade loophole.

This action only ends de minimis shipments from China and Hong Kong, which experts say will affect roughly 30 to 40% of these relatively low-cost international deliveries.

According to Glas, her coalition will now lobby the White House and Congress to close the loophole for all low-cost shipments reaching the U.S., not only from China but also from nations like Bangladesh, India and Vietnam.

"Member of Congress on both sides of the aisle have been supporting of closing de minimis for China and the rest of the world," Glas said.

One unanswered question is how U.S. officials will actually process, inspect and levy tariffs on the vast number of low-value packages now entering the U.S.

"Putting the systems in place to collect tariffs on a billion shipments [per year] will require large investments in infrastructure," said Amit Khandelwal at Yale University.

Indeed, Trump attempted to close this same trade loophole in February, but had to backtrack because U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials weren't prepared to handle the massive new task. White House officials say they're now ready.

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